Malaysian
Journal of Analytical Sciences Vol 19 No 6 (2015): 1327 - 1334
TREND ANALYSIS
OF PAHANG RIVER USING NON-PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS: MANN KENDALL’S TREND TEST
(Analisis Corak
Sungai Pahang Menggunakan Kaedah Bukan Parametrik: Ujian Corak
Mann Kendall)
Nur Hishaam Sulaiman1, Mohd Khairul Amri
Kamarudin1,2*, Ahmad Dasuki Mustafa1,
Muhammad Azizi Amran1, Fazureen Azaman1, Ismail Zainal
Abidin1, Norsyuhada Hairoma1
1East Coast Environmental Research Institute (ESERI)
2Faculty of Design Arts and Engineering Technology
Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin, 21300 Kuala Terengganu,
Terengganu, Malaysia
*Corresponding author: mkhairulamri@unisza.edu.my
Received:
14 April 2015; Accepted: 9 July 2015
Abstract
Flood
is common in Pahang especially during northeast monsoon season from November to
February. Three river cross station: Lubuk Paku, Sg. Yap and Temerloh were
selected as area of this study. The stream flow and water level data were
gathered from DID record. Data set for this study were analysed by using
non-parametric analysis, Mann-Kendall Trend Test. The results that obtained
from stream flow and water level analysis indicate that there are positively
significant trend for Lubuk Paku (0.001) and Sg. Yap (<0.0001) from
1972-2011 with the p-value < 0.05.
Temerloh (0.178) data from 1963-2011 recorded no trend for stream flow
parameter but negative trend for water level parameter. Hydrological pattern
and trend are extremely affected by outside factors such as north east monsoon
season that occurred in South China Sea and affected Pahang during November to
March. There are other factors such as development and management of the areas
which can be considered as factors affected the data and results. Hydrological
Pattern is important to indicate the river trend such as stream flow and water
level. It can be used as flood mitigation by local authorities.
Keywords: Mann Kendall, flood, trend analysis,
hydrology, Pahang River
Abstrak
Banjir di Pahang pada musin monsun timur laut yang membadai pantai timur
semenanjung Malaysia pada November
hingga Febuari. Terdapat tiga buah stesen hidrologi yang ditempatkan di
sepanjang Sungai Pahang telah dipilih untuk mewakili keseluruhan Sungai Pahang
iaitu Lubuk Paku, Sg.Yap dan Temerloh. Dalam kajian ini juga, parameter yang
digunakan ialah bersifat fizikal iaitu kelajuan arus dan paras air Sungai
Pahang yang diperoleh daripada JPS. Kesemua data yang diperoleh dianalisa
dengan menggunakan analisa bukan parametrik iaitu Ujian Corak Mann-Kendall.
Keputusan yang diperoleh daripada hasil analisis data menunjukkan bahawa
terdapat corak peningkatan positif pada data yang mewakili Lubuk Paku dan
Sungai Yap dari tahun 1972-2011. Kesemua p-value
yang dikira menunjukkan jelas terdapat corak dalam kedua-dua data pertama untuk
Lubuk Paku (0.001) dan Sungai Yap (kurang daripada 0.0001) di mana jumlah p-value kurang daripada 0.05. Temerloh
(0.178) mencatatkan tiada corak untuk kelajuan arus manakala untuk paras air ia
mencatatkan corak negatif. Terdapat pelbagai faktor yang mempengaruhi corak
hidrologi Sungai Pahang iaitu dari segi tiupan angin monsun dan pembangunan
yang dijalankan di kawasan kajian yang memberi impak yang besar terhadap
ketepatan data dan keputusan analisa. Pemantauan corak hidrologi amat penting
untuk mengetahui corak sungai dan boleh digunakan sebagai maklumat persediaan
banjir di Pahang.
Kata
kunci: Mann Kendall, banjir, analisis corak,
hidrologi, Sungai Pahang
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